Global InfoAnalytics, a prominent research organization, has forecasted a win for John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the upcoming December 7 general elections.
According to the latest poll released just days before the election, Mahama is projected to secure 52.2% of the vote, outpacing his main rival, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), who is expected to claim 41.4%. Other candidates, including Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, are projected to garner 2.5% and 3.0% of the vote, respectively, with the remaining 0.9% split among minor contenders. The analysis has a margin of error of ±1.8%, with voter turnout anticipated at 77.6%.
Regional Breakdown
Mahama is predicted to dominate in 10 regions, including key areas such as Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions, reinforcing his appeal in traditional NDC strongholds. On the other hand, Dr. Bawumia is expected to win in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, highlighting the NPP’s continued strength in its base regions.
Parliamentary Outlook
The report also forecasts significant gains for the NDC in parliamentary elections, predicting the party will secure approximately 150 seats. The NPP is projected to claim 99 seats, with one seat likely going to an independent candidate. However, the fate of 29 constituencies remains uncertain, as these are deemed too close to call.
This marks a potential shift in the balance of power in parliament, as the NDC looks poised to consolidate its dominance in core constituencies while making inroads in previously NPP-dominated areas.
Key Influences on Voter Behavior
The survey highlights several factors shaping voter preferences, including economic challenges, employment opportunities, and the delivery of public services. It also emphasizes the critical role of regional strongholds in determining the overall election outcome.
Possible Variations
The report outlines scenarios where Mahama’s support could fluctuate, ranging from 50.4% to 54.1%, depending on final voter turnout and the decisions of undecided voters.
While the predictions provide a strong indication of potential outcomes, the margin for change underscores the dynamic nature of voter sentiment as election day approaches.
